This next 15 months will require some extreme patience by Illini basketball fans. We have been spoiled in a way, making the NCAA tourney every year since 1999. And now we are hit with a really down year, and a team that has no chance of any post-season play. The optimists among us are expecting a return to the NCAA tourney next season, and I just don't see it happening. In fact, I think it's much healther to keep expectation down, way down.
A disaster scenario for Illinois basketball could unfold over the next 12 months in Champaign. If there are high expectations for a turnaround in the basketball program next season, there needs to be a way for Weber to deliver improved results on the court. And right now, Weber has to rest his hopes on improvement on the shoulders of Jamar Smith, a junior returning from a year layoff, and Stan Simpson, a promising freshman from Simeon. And midseason, highly-touted transfer Alex Legion joins the team for the Big 10 season. The disaster happens if the fans see another poor season of results on the court, and the media continues to pile on Coach Weber, fully knowing he has an outstanding recruiting class scheduled to arrive in the fall of 2009. This class is likely a top ten class, with Brandon Paul, DJ Richardson, Tyler Griffey and Joseph Bertrand verbally committed.
We have already seen the media take a whip to Weber this season, with Chicago columnists not even mentioning Weber's recent recruiting breakthroughs in articles criticizing the Illini. Add to that unmet expectations of the fans, and Weber could run into trouble next season. But the worst thing for Illinois would be to make a change in the coaching spot, with such promising recruits lined up. So let's keep the expectations low for next season, and wait for the new recruits to arrive. This will require extreme patience.
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Listen, I am huge Weber supporter, but your kid-gloves attitude is embarassing. The guy is making HUGE money, and it is his job to deliver. Let this year's team off the hook if you like, but....
No expectations for next year's team? I'm sure the guys on the team would appreciate that. Furthermore, the 2009 freshman class aren't going to rescue anybody - despite their apparent talent - unless you think Griffey's going to bust into the starting line-up as a freshman? Hey, honestly, those freshman guards aren't likely to beat out McCamey, Legion and Smith in 2009. Expectations will be high next year and the year after, and they should be - this is ILLINOIS basketball.
What are you worried about? Sure, we'll take our lumps again next year perhaps, as the young big man try to figure it out (especially if they don't add weight and strength), but don't give Weber and the 2008-09 team a pass - that's not only wimpy, it's an insult.
Hi Anonymous,
Thanks for the note and you make some great points. If you read my blog very often, you know that I don't give Weber a free pass. My point in the "extreme patience" piece is that:
-Next year's Illini team looks like this year's Illini team on paper, so let's be realistic on what we've got.
-If Weber gets fired just when he starts getting the better recruits coming in, that's just plain stupid on the part of Illinois.
So no free pass on Weber and the Illini, I'm just trying to support the rebuilding of the program over the next several years.
Agreed - and I appreciate your general sentiment (same guy, here). But perhaps what bothered me most was this: "In fact, I think it's much healther to keep expectation down, way down." Way down? What does this mean?
Okay, keep it on the level, sure, but this will already happen - everyone knows we have no proven players on the front line and that the lones senior, Brock and Alexander, have serious limitations in terms of not possessing a multitude of various skills.
Weber, while I support him - and will continue to through any trials of next year - I think is responsible for, in part at least, the whipping he's taking.
Granted, the journalistic abuse will happen either way when losses pile up, but the guy seems to be melting down before our eyes, at times, and it carries over to the team when he is relentless with his complaining and shouting out of orders, etc. Due to lack of attendance, I have an A-section seat every game and his rants are unreal, at times.
To Weber's credit, our guys continue to play hard, but they also have taken a beating from the constant flow of verbosity that has begun to characterize his on-court demeanor. Of course, the officials have taken it in the ear, too. Does anyone hear him anymore?
Next year's team will obviously lose a great deal in the front line, or... will they? That is the big question. On paper, the team will, I belive - in contrast to your point - be *much* different.
Legion will be playing with the team 5 weeks after the real season begins and we'll be far more perimeter oriented, as you know. Apart from the strength factor question on the front line, all players will be more experienced.
In addition, we should be vastly improved in the area of free-throw shooting when swapping out two 50% guys in Pruitt and Randle for both Legion and Smith - of course, we'll be counting on them to slash to the basket and get to the line.
Some perhaps obvious questions: Can Legion, Smith and McCamey put pressure on the ball and ignite some fast breaks? Can Alexander develop some disclipline and confidence? Can Cole, Tisdale and Davis develop some bulk? Can Davis quit pouting when he fouls, or misses a shot? If we can find guard pressure, some ball-handling and a fast break here and there, we will be a *LOT* different than last year. As McCamey goes, our team will go - let's hope Frazier doesn't get more than 15 minutes a game (not a slam on Chester, but this would mean the more-talented players are simply earning their playing time with great play).
Clearly, the team for next year needs Tisdale to gain 20 pounds or more, and two of our forwards to develop into solid bookends for Tisdale. But, yes, this seems highly unlikely.
Alexander is FAR from what we had hoped (like most of Weber's recruits to date, to be honest). And, Davis and Cole have no mean streak and are obviously rail-thin right now - this does not equate to a pretty 2008-09 forecast; particularly, come Big 10 season. Semrau? It would almost be shocking to even see him in uniform next year - wouldn't it? Or, perhaps Semrau hits the weights and gets a little angry, but the general public doesn't even know what "kind" of game he might have due to his bench-warming. That said, Semrau was initially billed - like all Weber's big men appear to be apart from the incoming Simpson - as a face-up guy and not a rebound-crasher.
As for the 2009 class being Top 10, not sure how you are assuming this. It would be nice to think that you are right, but such a statement can only mean you place a great deal of hope in the fact that Brandon Paul, himself, becomes a Top 20 recruit would seem to me. I've heard Top 20 projections on this class, but Top 10 seems awfully optimistic.
Mike
Mike:
By way down, I mean compared to the boards I read where nearly everyone expects the Illini to get back to the NCAAs next season. It's a great goal, hope it happens, but I just don't feel confident after this season.
I wish I saw more solid play out of guys like Tisdale, Cole, Davis and Alexander this season. That would make me more confident about next year, but I can't say their development this season is amazing or anything.
I agree with some concerns over Weber's handling of the team this year. He has really struggled with this group so far, so that really needs to change next year as well.
I think everyone knows free throw shooting should improve next year, but that has been only one of many weaknesses with this team. And Weber does not need to play Pruitt at the end of games, if he wanted to manage the issue better.
One of my biggest concerns about next season is Weber being stubborn in playing his most senior guys, rather than mixing in the sophs. He had to be forced to get McCamey in the starting line-up this season, and has been reluctant to play the newer players. I can't believe the minutes Frazier has played this year. If Weber is predictable at all, his starters next year will be: Tisdale, Brock, Meacham, McCamey and Frazier. Sorry, but that team is not getting me excited about Illini basketball.
Hard to say what will become of Richard Semrau after this year. I don't expect him in an Illini uniform next year, but you never know.
I think I am realistic on the ranking of the Illini 2009 recruiting class, and here's my logic. Scout has Bertrand and Griffey as 4 stars, DJ and Paul as 3 stars. Scout's number 9 ranked class for 2008 has four 4 star players, so all we need is for DJ and Paul to move up to 4 stars and no slippage with the others. We don't need a 5 star player to be in the top 10.
At Rivals, Bertrand, Griffey and DJ are already 4 stars, Paul is 3 stars. Their 8th best class has three 4 stars and two 3 stars, so all we need is Paul to move up to 4 stars. From what I hear about Brandon Paul, he is the best of the four 2009 recruits.
Anyway, nice chatting with you Mike. I think this season has changed my thinking toward next year in a negative way. I was not expecting this type of results, especially after traveling to Maui last November and seeing the team perform admirably in person against ASU, Duke and OSU. It is amazing to me the downward spiral this season, but maybe this can be reversed next season.
Cheers, and thanks for your insightful comments.
Great column. I agree with most of it. While we don't need to treat Coach Weber with "kid gloves"...we don't need to be fools like most of the CHI Town media. They loved him at 29-1...they're just fair weather people anyway. I too saw the Illini in Hawaii where they came back from a double digit deficit, then took apart ASU and Oaklhoma State on maui, while playing Duke tough. Aside from the obvious problem of free throws and 3-pt shooting, the really lack any type of on court leadership. there is no one who has stepped up to lead by example, motivate them, ask for ball in crunch time or ches some butt when needed. Usually that's the point guard. Chester busts his rear every game, but he's not a vocal leader and not a "big time scorer" esp. in crunch time. Demetri might develope into one, but that's tough to do as a freshman. Jamar may turn out to be one next year, or maybe Calvin B. I think their scoring ability, fast break ability and free throws should be really improved next year. Wether they find a "floor leader" and can develop chemistry on the floor, only time will tell. I really believe in Coach Weber. He palys by the rules, graduates his kids, he does it right. He will have to make a big stride from this year, then the next two should be gazng busters. I'll put my money on him and the orange & blue. GO ILLINI
Ron's advice to lower your expectations is good. If you don't. you are bound to suffer huge disappointment.
J. Smith has never shown that he is a slasher. What would make one think he will become one now?
There is no evidence that Illinois will have any front line next year. Tisdale has a long way to go before he becomes a good rebounder.
In short, Illinois will struggle again next year. It is like the Davis years at IU, lower your expectations and it will keep your expectations in line with reality.
Scott
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